A Bayesian Practioner

A Bayesian Practioner

As a quick follow up to our quarterly newsletter, I thought I would take the opportunity to update you on our investment thoughts in light of what appears to be a regime change in monetary policy expectations. To recap, we said that:

  1. We expected inflation to become more of a concern than it has been in the recent past given the coordinated global growth we have seen.
  2. Given the “goldilocks scenario” of ideal investment conditions, investors were bound to be surprised by a change in inflation expectations and potentially monetary policy.
  3. All assets are priced from US short-term T-bills (we call this the “risk-free” rate). If these rates move up rapidly, asset prices may come under pressure. This pressure is further magnified by the fact that valuations are extremely high.

"What's obvious, is obviously wrong."

"What's obvious, is obviously wrong."

2017 was a great year for our portfolios. And while the rising tide should hopefully raise all boats, we feel exceptionally proud of what we owned last year and where returns came from.

But change is on the horizon and an evolution is beginning in the portfolio that we are both excited about and preparing for. Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder of GMO, highlights this change that Nick will dive into much deeper in his report:

“Be as brave as you can on the EM (emerging markets) front. Be willing to cash in some career risk units. Bravery counts for so much more when there are very few good or even decent alternatives.”

We are preparing our portfolios to respond well whether we continue to muddle along or see inflation rise quicker than most are forecasting.

Beneath a Calm Surface, Change is Brewing

Beneath a Calm Surface, Change is Brewing

Global coordinated growth seems to be back and stock markets are up. This is in line with what we have expected. As discussed in last quarter’s letter, we expected the majority of returns to come from international and emerging markets and that has definitely been the case. Of course we will see volatility in the markets, so we must be prepared. With all of this growth, interest rate normalization is at the forefront of our minds.

Proceed With Caution...Don't Try to Pick The Top

Proceed With Caution...Don't Try to Pick The Top

As the current bull market continues, more investors are starting to predict the day it all comes to an end. Instead of trying to predict a market top, according to Mark Hulbert (of Marketwatch), investors should view market tops as a “gradual process in which equity exposure is slowly and deliberately reduced over time.” Predicting tops is not only unproductive, but it is also impossible to be accurate. Trying to pinpoint the precise date of a market top cannot be done because markets all reach their tops at different times. 

Equifax Data Breach: How to Protect Yourself

Equifax Data Breach: How to Protect Yourself

Because we didn’t have enough to worry about already, earlier this week we learned of a massive data breach at Equifax, one of the nation’s three major credit reporting agencies. Hackers stole names, Social Security numbers, birth dates, addresses, and in some instances driver’s license numbers and credit card numbers.In light of this unprecedented breach, we want to provide you with the necessary information to lessen your risk of being a victim of identity theft:

Venture Backed Unicorns May Be As Much As 50% Overvalued

Venture Backed Unicorns May Be As Much As 50% Overvalued

Venture capital has become an important driver of the economy and investment returns for many institutions. Even mutual funds have joined the party with the likes of Fidelity and T. Rowe Price having acquired the shares of pre-IPO companies in the private market within their mutual fund products. Now we are finding that these highly valued, venture backed companies may be as much as 50% overvalued.

2017 Q2 Note

2017 Q2 Note

Often times in this business, firms and individuals spend an incredible amount of time and resources trying to sell and market to prospects. And completely overlooked is the actual research: the foundation of a thesis and the guideposts to build a portfolio. This isn’t to say that nobody does the heavy lifting in this industry, but more and more often, we see "really smart people” with “complex portfolios” who, at the end of the day, are simply passive investing. In other words, they are tracking an index. Whether it booms or busts. Ignoring the future prospects.

Q2 Commentary: Going Overseas and Why Active Management Isn't Dead

Q2 Commentary: Going Overseas and Why Active Management Isn't Dead

I recently read the autobiography of Sam Zell, an extremely successful real estate investor known for his uncanny ability to buy low and sell high. In the book he tells the story of his father’s foresight and decisive action that preserved his family in Pre-world-war-2 Poland. As a successful grain merchant, his father kept apprised of political and social happenings in Europe through his extensive travel and interest in short wave radio. While some people looked at this “hobby” of international politics as a complete waste of time, it gave his father a unique outlook on the world. With this perspective, coupled with decisive action, the Zell’s were able to start a successful new life in the United States.

Why Growing Small Firms Is So Painful

Why Growing Small Firms Is So Painful

Getting your company off the ground to a sustainable place should be the hardest part of starting a company, right? That’s what many think, and yet the growing pains and problems that occur within larger organizations go unaddressed until it’s too late. Rick was a recent guest on XeniumHR's Human Resources for Small Business podcast, hosted by Brandon Laws and they discuss the common issues companies experience when they grow from 10 employees to 20 employees and beyond, and how they can lay the groundwork for a successful organization – no matter its ultimate size.

Avoiding The Lowest Expected Investment Returns In 100 Years

Avoiding The Lowest Expected Investment Returns In 100 Years

If you are like most people, you have 75% or more of your stock market investment in US equities[1]. The truth is, it’s not just the lay investors that are subject to this “home country bias.” Most financial advisors and money managers are equally prone to this bias. With the US accounting for only around 50% of global output and at historically high prices, a diversified portfolio should consist of a much greater allocation to foreign stocks.

The Messy, Perilous Journey: Why You Must Read "Shoe Dog"

The Messy, Perilous Journey: Why You Must Read "Shoe Dog"

I’ve long been of the opinion that emotional intelligence (EQ) is one of the hardest skills to acquire. But with it, it’s a heck of a lot easier to admit what you don’t know. And ask for help. And seek out mentors, advisors, and people smarter than yourself. To share your dream with others and then trust they can help you figure out how to execute it. Phil Knight’s EQ is on full display throughout the founding of Nike and in his candor retelling the story some 50+ years later.

Register Now: 2016 Economic and Leadership Summit

Register Now: 2016 Economic and Leadership Summit

From workforce and employee engagement issues to changing technology to the skyrocketing real estate market, business leaders face an ever-shifting array of challenges and opportunities today. Constant awareness and evolution are vital to staying ahead of the curve and continually gaining momentum.

Please join us for the fifth annual Leadership and Economic Summit on November 29, 2016 at the Multnomah Athletic Club. We've gathered some of the region's most successful business leaders to share how they're approaching today's challenges, offer insight on their success, and discuss what's ahead in 2017.

Q2 Commentary: How to Manage a Sideways Market

Q2 Commentary: How to Manage a Sideways Market

A sideways moving market, as we have seen recently, requires a different mindset to navigate. Indeed global developed markets have been flat for a couple years now, emerging markets have been flat for 10 years, and US Small Cap stocks have had zero return since late 2013. Most Wall Street sources have described it as, “The most hated bull market ever.” The following charts have us asking ourselves, is it possible the bull market ended and no one noticed yet?

To Attend the Party Or Not

To Attend the Party Or Not

We just finished hosting a few open houses for friends of the firm, and whether it was one too many glasses of wine or the volatility we saw in the first quarter, I think we stumbled on an interesting topic. Truth be told, we are a little late publishing this newsletter. In spite of some volatility in the first two months of the year, not much has changed. Thus, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to revisit a discussion (reference the earlier newsletter) regarding the emotion investors experience during market volatility.

We Already Wrote This Commentary

We Already Wrote This Commentary

As of this writing at the end of January 2016, the markets have been quite volatile. We have had a few conversations over the last couple years with clients wondering why we were so conservative. A few actually pointed to other investors who were earning a more substantial return, while their returns were more subdued. It is amazing how quickly the narrative in the market has changed from momentum-based risk taking to capital preservation.